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SPORTS BETTING – FOOTBALL KEY BETTING NUMBERS

Here are the key numbers in football by their importance,  3, 7, 10, 6, 4, 1, 2, 8. 5, 9,  in the NFL the final margin is exactly 3 over 15% of the time, the final margins of  5 or 9 less  than 2% of the time.

Everybody understands if a number is 3, or 7, you need to be careful, not to lay a bad number. But let’s look at a couple of other situations that determine  how you bet a game.  I want to look at two numbers,  the number 4 1/2   and the number 8 1/2.   Here is two numbers that you make completely different betting decisions depending if you are laying or taking the number.  If I like a game and the number is -4 1/2,  I am going to wait to the very last minute  to bet this game, I am hoping for the line to move, if the line moves to -5, it hardly hurts me at all, but if it moves to -4, I have a much better bet, so in this case I ALWAYS wait.  If I am planning on taking the 4 1/2 points, I go ahead and get down as soon as possible, in this case, if it moves to 5, it is not a great improvement for me,  but if it moves back to 4, I have a much weaker bet.  I ALWAYS take 4 1/2 immediately.

The number 8 1/2 is the same situation,  I always wait if I am laying it,   hoping for -8, and not really working about  moving to -9,  If i am taking, I bet right away locking up the 8 1/2, as 9 would not be a big improvement, but if it moves back to +8 its is a much weaker bet.

So pay attention to the number, in a lot of cases, you have a decision, if it makes sense to lock up a number now, or wait for a move that might improve your bet.

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