When you make a straight bet and lay 110 to win 100, you have to win 52.3% of your bets to break even. In a two team six point teaser laying $110 to win $100, ,to win 52.3% of the time, you must win each leg of the teaser 72.37% of the time.
So the question is, when does moving a point spread 6 points improve you chance of winning the game more than 20%, from 52.3 to 72.27, if it does then the teaser is the better bet, if not then you should make straight bets.
In NFL football the key numbers for a teaser are 7 1/2 and 8 1/2 point favorites, and 1 1/2 and 2 1/2 point underdogs. Teasing 7 1/2 and 8 1/2 favorites down to -1 1/2 and minus 2 1/2, or, teasing 1 1/2 and 2 1/2 underdogs up to plus 7 1/2 and 8 1/2 all give you a greater than 25% edge as you are moving the line across the most important key numbers 2, 3, 4, 5,6 7 in one case or 3, 4, 5, 6, 7 and 8, in the other.
Exception to the rule – Rod favorites of 7 1/2 points are more have covered only 40% of the time over the last 10 years. I will bet home or rode dogs up, I will bet home favorites down, I will not use rode favorites of 7 1/2 or 8 1/2 in six-point teasers.
Important, there are no other numbers in the NFL that give you a favorable advantage in betting teasers. But these four numbers (+1 1/2, +2 1/2 and -7 1/2, -8 1/2) will result in long term profits without any handicapping of the game itself.
Football betting is a numbers business!
I will bet all the NFL combinations of these numbers in teasers, I would rather move from 1 1/2 to 7 1/2, and down from 7 1/2 to 1/ 1/2 than the other numbers because it give me the number 2 instead in the number 8. In the last 15 years, games have fallen 2 (3.47% of the games) almost 33% more than they have fallen on 8. (2.56% of the games) As you already know , 3 is by far the most important number with 15.8% of NFL games falling on the number 3.
One other factor I look at is the posted total on the game, the lower the total the stronger the teaser play. If I am betting some kind of “Kelly” or percentage of bankroll system, I would bet a higher percentage on a game with a total of 41 than I would on atotal of 46.
Last but not least, most professionals will tell you that betting teasers in college football is a negative EV in all cases. This is because of the increased volatility in college scoring margins. I believe they can be successfully played using basic strategy if you stick with totals of 45 or under in college football. Not many of those these days. The above strategy applies to two team six point teasers when you lay 110 to win 100.not that long ago you could bet 2 team six points at even money, that was a cash machine, if you have a guy who still puts them up at even money, make sure you take advantage of it.